Venezuela: what is proven and what is alleged

From the 1999 Constitution to Maduro's capture: what a court found proven, what the UN documented and what is still an accusation. Every claim links to its dossier entry and its source.

By The Contrast · 22 October 2026 · 9 min read

Venezuela · Institutions · Human rights · Justice · Period: 1999–2026 · Dossier entries checked against their sources on October 22, 2026

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Where things stand

On January 3, 2026, US special forces captured Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in Caracas and took them to New York. Reported fact Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, to serve as acting president, and she was sworn in on January 5. Reported fact

In New York, Maduro and Flores are accused of, among other charges, narcoterrorism and, since October 8, torture. They pleaded not guilty and their trial is set for June 14, 2027. No court has convicted them. Accusation Accusation

Since January there have been mass releases from prison and an Amnesty Law. Documented by official bodies Foro Penal counted 322 political prisoners on October 5, compared with more than 573 in February. Documented by investigation Even so, the UN fact-finding mission concluded in September that the foundations of the repressive apparatus remain largely intact. Documented by official bodies There is no date for elections: María Corina Machado is demanding one from Panama. Reported fact

How to read this story

Every claim carries a label saying how proven it is and links to its entry in our dossier, which gives the source and, if there was one, the response of the accused. The label is not an opinion: it depends on who established the fact. The dossier entries are written in Spanish.

• Proven in court: a judgment, an arbitration award or a guilty plea before a court.
• Documented by official bodies: the UN, the International Criminal Court, governments or official figures.
• Documented by investigation: human rights NGOs or investigative journalism with a published method.
• Reported fact: a public event reported by several outlets, such as a law being passed.
• Accusation: charges or allegations that no court has decided. An accusation is not a conviction.

The 88 dossier entries, by topic

• Institutions: court 1 · official bodies 12 · investigation 6 · press 5
• Oil and economy: court 5 · official bodies 7 · investigation 2 · accusation 5
• Human rights: court 2 · official bodies 12 · investigation 3
• Drug trafficking: court 3 · official bodies 4 · investigation 2 · press 1 · accusation 4
• 2026: official bodies 5 · investigation 1 · press 8

The rules of the vote

In 1999 a referendum approved a new Constitution. Documented by official bodies In 2004 a law enlarged the Supreme Court from 20 to 32 justices and allowed them to be elected and removed by a simple majority; Human Rights Watch concluded that this allowed the court to be packed with allies. Documented by investigation

In 2013 Maduro beat Henrique Capriles by about 223,600 votes, and the CNE (the National Electoral Council) audited part of the ballot boxes without including the voter logbooks (cuadernos de votación) that the opposition was asking for. Documented by official bodies In 2015 the opposition won two-thirds of the National Assembly and Maduro acknowledged defeat. Documented by official bodies Afterwards, the Supreme Court declared the Assembly in contempt (desacato) and in 2017 took over its powers; the attorney general called it a “ruptura del orden constitucional” [rupture of the constitutional order]. Documented by official bodies Documented by investigation That year a Constituent Assembly was elected without first consulting voters Documented by investigation, and the 2018 re-election was not recognized by 14 countries of the Lima Group. Documented by official bodies

2024: three figures for the same election

The CNE proclaimed Maduro the winner with 51.2% in a bulletin read aloud and later gave 51.95%, but it never published the results polling station by polling station. The opposition published the tally sheets (actas) from 81.7% of polling stations, with Edmundo González on 67.1%; the Carter Center considered them authentic. The UN Panel of Experts verified that a sample had the security features of the originals, without reviewing the totals. The government said they were fake, without providing evidence. Documented by official bodies

Oil and money

The EIA attributes the decline to lack of maintenance, PDVSA's finances, the loss of workers, the 2019 blackouts, the 2019 and 2020 sanctions and the shortage of diluents. Documented by official bodies The Central Bank reported inflation of 130,060% in 2018 Documented by official bodies; the government blamed it on an “guerra económica” [economic war] and on the sanctions.

US courts found several cases proven: Odebrecht admitted to about 98 million dollars in bribes in Venezuela Proven in court, and a former Swiss banker was sentenced to 10 years for laundering PDVSA funds Proven in court. Alex Saab, deported by Venezuela in May, pleaded guilty to money laundering in September; he has not been sentenced yet. Proven in court

Human rights

In 2019 the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported 5,287 deaths in 2018 for alleged “resistance to authority” and found reasonable grounds to believe that many were extrajudicial executions; the government responded that the report was “parcializado” [biased]. Documented by official bodies In 2020 the UN fact-finding mission concluded that crimes against humanity had been committed Documented by official bodies, and in 2024 it reached the same conclusion about the repression after the election, with at least 25 dead and 158 minors detained. Documented by official bodies The International Criminal Court has been investigating since 2021; there are no public arrest warrants. Documented by official bodies

Drug trafficking: more accusations than convictions

There are convictions: two nephews of Cilia Flores were convicted in 2016 of conspiring to import more than 800 kilos of cocaine, and released in 2022 in a prisoner swap Proven in court, and the former head of military intelligence Hugo Carvajal pleaded guilty in 2025. Proven in court

The rest are accusations. In 2020 the US accused Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and others of narcoterrorism. Accusation The 2026 indictment mentions the “Cartel de los Soles” twice, compared with about 33 times in the 2020 one, and InSight Crime describes it as a network of corruption rather than a cartel with a boss; the State Department says its assessment has not changed. Documented by investigation A US intelligence memo concluded in 2025 that Maduro did not direct the Tren de Aragua; the Trump administration rejected it. Documented by official bodies

Since September 2025, the US has been striking boats that it says are carrying drugs. Just Security's independent tracker counted 71 strikes and 238 dead as of October 4, 2026; there is no official Pentagon figure and no public evidence of what each boat was carrying. Documented by investigation

What we don't know

• Sentencing of Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal: he pleaded guilty in 2025; sentencing was postponed several times and, since April 16, 2026, has had no date.
• Trial of Maduro and Cilia Flores: moved to June 14, 2027. On October 15, 2026 both pleaded not guilty to the new indictment (S5). The defense argues head-of-state immunity.
• Text of the oil contract with North American Blue Energy Partners: it is still not public. The US speaks of rights for 100 years and Delcy Rodríguez of a ‘proyecto bilateral de 25 años’ [25-year bilateral project]. On October 16, 2026 the president of PDVSA, Héctor Obregón, said the agreement ‘está vigente y en funcionamiento’ [is in force and operating] (TalCual).
• Ojeda case: we did not find an official statement from Chile's Public Prosecutor's Office (Ministerio Público) naming Diosdado Cabello, nor an arrest warrant against him; only statements by the prosecutor in the press.
• Trial of the Venezuelan (PDVSA) strand of the Banca Privada d'Andorra case: we found no report that it has begun. The 2025 judgment in the main case was appealed and the prosecution has until October 30, 2026 to respond; the extradition of Luis Abraham Bastidas Ramírez from Argentina depends on Javier Milei's executive branch.
• Casualty figures for the January 3, 2026 operation: there are only official figures. According to Defense Minister Padrino López (Jan 16, 2026), 83 dead (47 Venezuelan and 32 Cuban military personnel) and more than 112 wounded; there is no independent count.
• Total deaths in the US strikes on boats: there is no official Pentagon figure. According to Just Security's independent tracker, as of October 4, 2026 there had been 71 strikes and 238 dead (23 of them missing and presumed dead).

How we did it

On October 22, 2026 we opened the sources of all 88 entries again: court rulings, US Justice Department press releases, reports from the UN, the Carter Center and NGOs, and the press when there was no other source. We corrected figures and quotes, replaced secondary sources with primary ones and added what has happened since October 8. No accusation is presented as a proven fact. Where an accused person responded, their response is in the entry.

The research and writing were done with the help of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editor of The Contrast; there was no independent outside verification. If we correct anything, we will note it here with the date.

English version, October 22, 2026: translated from the Spanish original with the help of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editor of The Contrast. Same facts, figures and labels; some quotes are left in Spanish with our translation in brackets, and the dossier entries are still in Spanish.

The Contrast · Stories in context · Published October 22, 2026, with data as of that date; English version October 22, 2026. More stories